How can you distinguish between a temporary disruption and a risk expected to impact the entire value chain? In an environment marked by sustained volatility, companies need to detect risks earlier and better anticipate how they will spread. For CFOs, the challenge lies in identifying weak signals, mapping dependencies and transforming information into swift, informed decisions. Coface’s experts decode the levers for moving from reactive trade risk management to a more proactive and strategic approach.
Beyond the headlines: the real risks
Rising tariffs and export controls, trade fragmentation into regional blocs and geopolitical instability are increasing pressure on supply chains, credit risk and payment behaviour. These disruptions are now occurring at a particularly rapid pace, as are economic and geopolitical transformations such as climate change, the energy transition, technological disruptions and artificial intelligence. These phenomena are not new, but they are increasingly interconnected.
Faced with this volatility, simply monitoring economic news is no longer enough, and the use of strategies involving multiple scenarios has become essential. Companies need to link major trends to their own markets, sectors, business partners and credit decisions. The aim for companies is therefore to be able to differentiate between cyclical noise and underlying trends. Even a seemingly minor macroeconomic development can have very different effects depending on the sector, the market or the company’s business model.
Risks are multiplying, but not all are equal: every company, in each of its markets, must be able to identify and assess them in order to improve its visibility and demonstrate the agility that is essential in the current climate.
Access to in-depth economic and sector-specific analysis, based on exclusive data and proven expertise, is crucial for providing insight and facilitating decision-making,
says Jean-Christophe Caffet, Chief Economist - Coface Group.
Mapping the domino effect on supply chains
To pinpoint these transmission channels, Coface’s economists have developed a tool using Power BI. This analyses detailed data on global trade and transforms it into indicators of supply chain vulnerability.
Like a metal detector, the tool generates a signal: this is not a definitive conclusion, but rather indicates where to focus the analysis. Sector and country economists then interpret this signal to produce actionable insights. The tool is also capable of identifying vulnerabilities that may result from other shocks, with the aim of better anticipating successive first-, second- and third-order impacts.
Shift from fragmented management to a proactive approach
Companies are currently facing several recurring operational challenges: manual processes, fragmented information, inconsistent decisions across countries or entities, and time-consuming portfolio reviews: the increasing complexity of international trade puts traditional risk management systems under pressure.
To manage their commercial risks proactively, companies need more centralised strategies, rapid access to experts and support solutions able to adapt to their specific challenges. The aim is to detect earlier any changes likely to affect a partner’s creditworthiness, and then to translate this information into operational decisions.
Coface Premium Services: a comprehensive solution to navigate complex risks
Coface Premium Services (CPS) transforms credit risk management from a reactive and fragmented approach into a centralised, proactive and strategic organisation. This solution notably involves:
- dedicated support and bespoke analyses from a team of risk experts;
- centralised governance of commercial risk management;
- simplified operations through connectivity solutions (such as APIs or Alyx) which, in particular, reduce the need for manual intervention and lighten the workload.
This approach is tailored to companies expanding into multiple markets, broadening their client portfolio or facing increasingly difficult credit decisions. CPS becomes relevant when credit risk management is too complex to rely solely on standard procedures. The key indicators are:
- growing international exposure;
- more time spent on portfolio reviews;
- decisions varying from country to country;
- a need for faster access to risk expertise and market analysis;
- the search for a higher level of service.
Mid-market companies are now looking for much more than just protection: they need greater expertise, finely tuned to their specific realities.
With Coface Premium Services, we are transforming the way these companies manage their credit risk, moving from a reactive and fragmented approach to a more centralised, proactive and strategic one.
CPS provides greater visibility, consistency and customised support, enabling our clients to pursue their growth with confidence in an increasingly complex economic environment,
explains Bernard Nassiri, Director of Sales Operations, Lead Generation and the Mid-Market segment - Coface Group.
Learn how to better anticipate risks and make decisions with confidence:
- Watch the webinar to discover the comprehensive analysis from Coface’s experts.
- To discuss your company’s needs and get a customised demo, contact a Coface expert in your country!
