All Coface Publications
Despite the many obstacles in its path (diverse and varied political risks, high volatility of commodity prices, supply constraint s in advanced economies, to name but a few), world growth in 2018 managed to sustain its 2017 rate (3.2%)Read More
A favourable economic environment was not enough to reduce company insolvencies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While average GDP growth accelerated to 4.5%, i.e. the highest level in nine years, insolvencies increased by 6.4%.Read More
With Greece about to pull out of its third bailout package, signs of economic recovery are multiplying: 2017 was a year marked by the return of positive growth (+1.4%), and - despite weakening growth in the eurozone - Greek GDP growth is expected to be close to 2% in 2018, with Greek households and businesses remaining more optimistic in the first half of the year than in 2017.Read More
Coface’s 2018 Asia Corporate Payment Survey covers nine economies. Data collection took place during the fourth quarter of 2017, and valid responses were collected from almost 3,000 companies. Respondents in Asia were under pressure to further extend their payment terms (...)Read More
This is the first corporate payment survey in Turkey aiming at indicating how payment terms stand in different sectors, how companies manage credit management practices and evaluate future payment experience (...)Read More
Despite regional conflicts, the 2007-08 financial crisis, and the 2009-11 eurozone crisis, Western Balkans countries have developed a close economic proximity with the European Union via a number of regional and bilateral agreements. However, due to institutional, economic, and diplomatic obstacles, accession to the EU will be a long process. At the same time, due to the region’s strategic importance and with the reinforcement of membership conditions, accession (or a pre-accession status) is likely to happen – especially as membership would divert the region from other
interested parties (Russia, China).
The exchange rate risk is still relevant on the African continent, as evidenced by the depreciation of the Angolan kwanza by more than 30% since the partial liberalisation of the exchange rate regime in January 2018.Read More
The Chinese economy staged a comeback in 2017. GDP ticked up from 6.7% in 2016 to 6.9% in 2017, favoured by strong demand, as well as loose monetary and fiscal policy settings. As a result, risk managers have become more complacent, both in terms of their economic expectations and their risk management procedures.Read More
13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Every quarter, Coface reviews the assessments of 13 sectors throughout 24 countries in 6 major regions in the world (representing approximately 75% of global GDP).Read More
Infographics - French organic food sector: how can it increase scale without abandoning its original principles?Read More
The UK automotive industry is entering a dry period. The voices of the main UK industry representatives and their concerns regarding the negative effects of a potential hard Brexit appear to remain unheard (...)Read More
While more than 30% of respondents said in 2015 that that the time between the transmission of invoice and collection was between 30 and 60 days, this share decreased to 24% of respondents in 2016 and 11% of respondents in 2017.Read More
Central and Eastern Europe: Less business insolvencies despite temporary headwinds in the construction sectorRead More
Political changes in the US have caused uncertainty over the trade policies that could be implemented and the region’s vulnerability to tighter financial conditions. Since Donald Trump’s victory, the currencies of many emerging countries have fallen against the dollar. Mexico’s currency was the most greatly affected in the world, with 19 % depreciation against the USD in 2016.Read More
Through the initiative of Coface, a world leader in trade credit management and risk information services, a credit opinion survey across the UAE was rolled out in order to map out major shifts and prevailing trends in company payments.Read More
Labour markets in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region are continuing to improve.
Unemployment rates have reached the lowest levels ever recorded and most CEE economies are enjoying lower unemployment than the EU average
RMB depreciation, capital flow measures and new monetary stance - What are the implications for Chinese corporates?Read More
Coface’s payment survey confirms that sales on credit are being extensively used by Polish companies. Although credit periods have become common practice, it does not mean that receivables are being paid on time.Read More
South Africa’s growth performance has been in decline since the global financial crisis. Since peaking in 2011, the growth rate (hit by lower commodity prices and power supply problems) has continued to slow.Read More
Turkey’s economy experienced several shocks during 2015 and 2016. Heightened political uncertainties, regional tensions, the US rate hike process, the credit rating downgrade and domestic security issues, have all resulted in (...)Read More
Why is the collaborative economy so captivating in France? First of all, because it is synonymous with youth and innovation. But also because sectors that are experiencing double-digit growth nowadays are scarce.Read More
For this quarter, the result is clearly negative once again, as eight sectors have been downgraded and only one upgraded. The changes concern North America (increased risks in the retail, textile-clothing, paper-wood and transport sectors), Western Europe (downgrade of the agrofood sector) and Central Europe (downgrades for construction and IT & communications, but an upgrade for the transport sector) and Middle East (downgrade for IT & communications).Read More
Despite the silent impact of the first arrow on Japan’s exports, the operating profits of Japanese manufacturers which have been mainly exported oriented surged, in part due to their pricing-to-market behaviour.Read More
Rising political risks in developed countries: the sword of Damocles hangs over Europe’s major economiesRead More
French growth has taken a time-out in Q2. The political uncertainties in the United Kingdom, the strikes in May and the floods affecting Ile-de France are all likely suspects responsible for this surprise halt. However, the figures are expected to recover in Q3.Read More
Poland has seen a slowing of its economy this year, compared to 2015. Nevertheless, growth is still continuing at a fair rate and, in fact, remains at a level which many other economies can only dream of.Read More
The importance of the Agribusiness sector varies between the different North African economies. While on a regional level, the sector leads exports, on a country basis it differs. In Morocco, agribusiness benefits from government subsidies, as it contributes nearly 16% of GDP and provides employment for 40% of the population. Overall, across the main north African countries, the lowest level of risk is in Morocco...Read More
In the light of the on-going structural reforms, the "tale of two Chinas" is resulting in sector wise winners and losers, linked to their growth potential in the medium and longer term, government policies and structural demand.Read More
Coface updates its risks outlook for 12 business sectors in 6 regions every quarter. For the first time, these regional assessments are accompanied by detailed sectoral assessments for 17 countries (see appendixes page 6): United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE and South Africa.Read More
Sluggish global growth, characterised in particular by China's loss of momentum, shock to commodity prices… Sub-Saharan Africa has not been spared in the global tempest and seeks to maintain growth against wind and tide. The commodity producers are the most affected.Read More
The referendum result has caused uncertainty and volatility in the markets. But also, with the lower value of Sterling, opportunities to export. However all this comes with the risk of not being paid.Read More
Bankruptcies drastically decreased in almost all countries in the region during the course of last year - especially in the four Northern Europe Region (NER) countries we focus on in this panorama, namely Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark.Read More
Brazil: a country in deep recession looks tentatively towards the first steps of the new government.Read More
Sluggish growth, absence of inflationary pressures, ever more expansionary monetary policies and increased volatility in financial markets; these are four elements characterising the global economy in early 2016 (...)Read More
After five years of sanctions, Iran is finally to rejoin the global community. The return of Iran should have an effect on international growth through the oil channel but above all, will bring huge changes to Iran itself. International sanctions have impacted the Iranian economy.Read More
Since 2003, Coface has been conducting annual surveys on business payment experience in China. In 2015, the average credit termes offered by China-based firms decreased again, reflecting a more prudent approach to granting credit facilities to customers. the overall payment experience in China deteriorated and remained very challenging in 2015.Read More
The German economy has changed its growth model during recent years. While internal demand (especially private consumption) – was sluggish and weak throughout most of the 2000s, it is currently the (...)Read More
Retail trade benefits from good prospects of consumer demand which, however, will not eliminate challenges for the sector including an intense competition and the implementation of new levy for retailers. Foreign chains will remain dominant taking an advantage of their large-scale bargaining position and offering the most attractive prices for consumers even despite being charged by the new tax.Read More
The Chinese economy has been in the spotlight for several months: devaluation of the yuan, stock market collapse, falling property prices, fears of an excessive economic slowdown, doubts about the reliability of published data and, more generally speaking, uncertainties about the rebalancing process the authorities have launched.Read More
What are the impacts of lower oil prices on the gulf countries economy. Focus on Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain. What are the diversification strategies and the region’s integration with international trade. Focuses on the food and beverage sector in the UAE and automotive sector in Saudi Arabia.Read More
The automotive sector plays an important role in the CEE’s economic activity. Thanks to low labour costs, the educated workforce, geographical proximity to Western European markets, tax incentives and the stabilising legal environment, CEE countries have become attractive destinations for investment by global car manufacturers.Read More
Company insolvencies stabilized with a just minor drop by 0.5% as the regional average. Our scenario assumes that companies should experience further gradual decline of insolvencies this year facing good prospects for internal demand and more visible recovery of Eurozone as the CEE’s main trading partner.Read More
This barometer sets out the latest trends for company insolvencies for the first four months of 2015 in France. After a 2.9% fall recorded for 2014, a level not observed since 2010 (-3.8%), the first four months of the year were marked by a rebound in insolvencies.Read More
Coface's annual survey on the Asia-Pacific region surveyed companies in 8 economies. 70% of companies surveyed experienced overdue payments in 2014 - the highest in 3 years. The study reveals some key indicators and several risk underwriters share their 'on-the-ground' views on sector development in their respective economies.Read More
The changes in our sector assessments reflect the development of the world economy since the end of 2014, marked by the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies, the oil price collapse and gradual recovery in the Eurozone. These trends have had repercussions on most of the sectors we track.Read More
The automotive sector in the US, deeply impacted by the onset of the 2007 crisis, seems to be currently a part of a virtuous circle.
As the car sales are on an upward trend, some risks could derail the sector economy, though.
Since the signature of the Pacto por Mexico in December 2012, an agreement struck by the three main political parties, the country has witnessed a variety of reforms. President Peña Nieto was efficient in securing cross-party support and big improvements, were made in 2013. The government obtained approval for a landmark energy reform, bringing to an end the 75-year old monopoly of state-owned Pemex and, by opening the oil and gas industries to private investment, freed up the labor market. It has also introduced competition in the telecoms sector. However sluggish growth was reported in 2013 and during the early part of 2014.Read More
In this panorama we first set out a study examining how the advanced economies are facing up to the challenge of weak economic growth since the Lehman Brothers collapse, that is for the past seven years now! Some observers are even talking of "secular stagnation". But, in our view, not all the advanced economies are facing the same challenges regarding this risk of longterm stagnation. We believe that (...)Read More
The Czech Republic is back on fast track. After falling into recession in 2012 and 2013 due to sharp fiscal consolidation and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, the economy regained momentum reaching solid growth rate of 2.0% in 2014 and should gain speed with (...)Read More
Ongoing economic scenario in Brazil remains sensitive, Coface expects GDP to break even in 2014 and activity should contract by 0.5% in 2015. Industry dropped by 3.2% in 2014 and will probably record another negative year in 2015. The year has just started, but it may reserve some negative surprises.
Coface conducts an annual survey of payment experience in China. With 80% of the survey respond-ents shared overdue experience and 56.7% of them saw an increase in overdue amount over the past year, the overall payment experience in China remained very challenging in 2014Read More
Latin America is a major producer of commodities and recent drop in oil prices is impacting countries of the region in different ways. Some of them may benefit from lower international quotation, others are negatively impacted already in the short term and finally a third group could be affected in the medium term onlyRead More
Company insolvencies in Turkey: Rise in exchange rates and slowdown in domestic demand affected payment performance. Impaired profitability made payments difficult. Focus on some sector risks : Metal, Automotive, Food, Chemical, Construction, Retail, Textile & apparel.Read More
How do the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies perform after the social and political turmoil caused by the socalled “Arab Spring” late in 2010? Have social and economic demands of protesters resulted in a healthier economic outlook in these countries? The panorama will focus on hydrocarbon sector for the GCC countries and on the textile sector for the North Africa region. It will also assess the latest trends in construction, tourism and automotive sectors across the MENA region to evaluate possible corporate risks.Read More
The term "deflation" seems to be on everyone's lips in Europe these days, not just on those of economists. The buzz around the term is not surprising, as Eurozone inflation has been falling for the past three years. France is no exception (...)Read More
This publication is the October 2014 Coface Panorama country risk, and includes a study about World trade, which is stagnating in the first halfyear 2014 and is struggling to recover nearly 6 years after the start of crisis...
Panorama United Arab Emirates: A remarkable recovery after the debt crisis but financing needs still high
How wealthy is the UAE economy after the debt crisis? Figures indicate that after contracting around 5 percent in 2009, the UAE economy recorded gradually solid growth rates. The economy is expected to grow by 5 percent in 2014, after expanding around 5.2 percent in 2013.
Activity in Brazil remains lackluster, inflation stands above the target, interest rates are among the highest in the world, confidence remains at a low level across a variety of indexes and the well-known low investment ratio continues to deteriorate. What is the impact on companies’ payment capacity?
After five challening years Romania’s economic performance proved that it has become one of the leaders of the European recovery and exceeded expectations with GDP growth rising by 3.5% in 2013. However, the slowldown of the growth in 2014 shows another picture.Read More
From 2004 to 2008 Brazil had grown, on average, by 4,8% a year, but in the former period, from 2009 to 2013, the average rate declined to 2,7%. It is true that activity deceleration in China contributed, but it explains just a part of what has happened.Read More
If the tensions rise again as it happened in December and January, this may harm investors’ confidence and result in a fluctuation in forex markets. Such a situation would have a negative impact on the corporate sector’s external debt stock which is already at record high level.Read More
The group’s 2013 activity report is available. Besides elements on 2013 performance, the report contains general information about Coface, missions, governance, businesses, offer and analysis of the world macroeconomic situation.Read More
New barometer of companies insolvencies in France: a lull is observed from January to April 2014 with the number of insolvencies falling by 2.3%. This barometer is followed by a comparison between the situation of SMEs in France and Spain.Read More
The results of a study on insolvencies among the CEE economies, a region experiencing a sharp rise in the rate of insolvencies in many countries during 2013 (e.g. up 39% in Bulgaria and 32% in the Czech Republic).Read More
A broad spectrum of exciting reform plans have been announced, and the government had a series of follow-up actions. But in the near-term, potential negative impacts on the real economy as a result of the reform effort and credit risks associated with the rising cost of fund have to be watched out for.Read More
Textiles - upmarket positioning and innovation: key to the success for the French and European textile industry?
Coface presents their quarterly sector barometer, which assesses the risks to which companies in fourteen key industrial sectors in emerging Asia, North America and Western Europe are exposed.
The report also includes an analytical focus on European textiles. This traditional industry was affected very early by globalisation, and, in particular, competition from developing countries.
In this Panorama, you will find the Coface barometer, which analyses the evolution of French insolvent companies between November 2012 and October 2013.
We then publish a study on insolvencies in the French construction sector, overrepresented in insolvencies compared to its weight in the economy.
This year’s study of the "Coface Central and Eastern Europe Top 500 companies" presents an even more heterogeneous picture of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe, each of which experienced and dealt with the impact of the crisis in the Eurozone in different ways.Read More
Automotive industry in Turkey and in Russia: is it worth the risk?
In this context, international groups from the sector are turning to emerging markets, particularly Turkey, highly export-oriented with its competitive costs, and Russia, buoyed by a large and dynamic domestic market. Betting on these two very attractive markets is bold, but their potential exceeds the risks.
Brazil must address structural problems before it can return to the fast lane. This latest Panorama looks at the difficulties faced by the world’s second largest emerging economy but finds some reasons for optimism for UK exporters.
The Italian 'business model' stuck in a vicious circle. In its latest Panorama report, Coface warns of worsening company payment practices in Italy, reflecting the severity of the recession, the preponderance of fragile small companies and the sheer scale of late payment within the public sector.
This new Panorama contains the results of our Company Insolvency Monitor from April 2012 to April 2013 and the results of a study on insolvencies among Eastern European countries, a region experiencing a sharp rise in insolvencies rate.Read More
Coface releases a series of economic reports and is pleased to announce the publication of its second Panorama sector report. Readers will find in it a global sector barometer which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors. The originality of the analysis is that it is based on aggregating the accounts of 6,000 companies in three of the world’s major regions: the European Union, North America and Emerging Asia.Read More
In this Panorama, Coface highlights the radical transformation of risks in emerging countries. While traditional country risk (sovereign risk, external vulnerability) has appreciably declined, three new risks are appearing and need to be monitored.Read More
The 17th Country Risk Conference held by Coface on 22 January 2013 has confirmed the complexity of a situation where, more than ever, the world seems to be «split in two»: advanced versus emerging countries.Read More
Investors have made it one of their favourite havens during this period of recurrent crises, from global finance to sovereign debt in the eurozone. Proverbial political stability, sound management of public finances, a complex but attractive tax system, many very innovative small businesses and a flexible labour market. Not forgetting, of course, a renowned financial market, making it a major player on the international scene in wealth management activities. These are strengths which sometimes turn into weaknesses.
Steel Sector vulnerable due to overcapacity and falling demand in China. Coface focuses on the steel sector as part of its quarterly Panorama Sector report which assesses the strengths and weaknesses of 14 important business sectors in emerging Asia, North America and the European Union.
Small businesses are the backbone of the United States' economy and key to its recovery but political uncertainties are holding them back, according to Coface’s Panorama which focuses on the prospects for this sector.
Contrasting outlook for company insolvencies in Germany & France. In this latest Panorama into two of the UK’s leading export markets, Coface economists explain why the level of corporate insolvencies was 40% higher in France than in Germany during 2011 (50,485 and 30,099 respectively).